January 28, 2007    While many eyed Ecuador’s embarrassing mid-air tragedy of 1-24-07 as a mid air “collision” we sense that this expression is more apt than even Stratfor’s chock-full-of-holes analysis would portend.

Ecuador is indeed on a collision course… with history’s realities. As the global- but not local- media is finally catching up and noting that Hugo Chavez’s bag man, Rafael Correa, intentionally lied to Ecuadoreans during the recent presidential election campaign and can no longer be known as anything but what he is….an intentional (albeit elected under false premises) agent to convert Ecuador in to a Chavez-dominated communist style petro-state dictatorship satellite. That this remains a surprise to some in the foreign policy world is only due to their reluctance to suspend enabling the state monopolists or lending cover to their murky and as yet unfettered financial offshore profiteers who continue to drain the swamp- the oil swamp- for political fun and profit.

While we cannot fault Stratfor alone for its nascent attempt at fact sharing, it remains that the facts must be on the table with regard to Ecuador. It is pretextual for any media or governmental operative to continue to gloss over core facts. In Ecuador, their tragedy is that their Defense Minister died last week, most likely due to incompetence but because Ecuador has no competence, thus no foundation at all today for fact-based analysis, all intellectual substantive analysis must be outsourced. There is not one academic or technical  body in Ecuador that anyone, even Ecuadoreans, would deem fit for any analysis due to the deterioration of normative integrity standards in Ecuador by Ecuadoreans who have for too long cared nothing whatsoever about pesky notions such as academic rigor, fact-based reporting, or functional living. The same could be said for its new soul mates: Bolivia, Cuba, Iran, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Ask yourself: would you trust an aerospace report from Evo Morales’s team? Would you trust a military evaluation from Hugo Chavez?

This suspension of internal local actors and leaders who are credible has led to Ecuador’s collision with reality and to date, Ecuador is failing badly in the real world even as it fails itself by choice. With nothing dependable or credible inside Ecuador, one would assume that Ecuador would seek to establish attractability and core competence. Instead, Ecuadoreans have decided to ignore and run away from the entire messy problem of being and acting as adults with responsibility, outsourcing intellectual analysis even as they have just outsourced their government to Hugo Chavez, further outsourcing their futures to a disastrous outcome.

By ignoring normative performances for nominal governance such as fair media reporting, educational standards, basic standard of living analysis, and fiscal reliability of the state economy ( no one knows at all where Ecuador’s petro dollars have gone), Ecuadoreans themselves have been as delusional as Rafael Correa is today regarding their failed state status and their escalating state kleptocracy, still leaving over 60% of Ecuadoreans under hard poverty limits and ill prepared for any demands of modern society. Ecuadoreans appear today to enjoy their self imposed adolescent world view- as phony as Correa’s fake inaugural “shaman” events- as increased, stubborn childishness passes all blame for their failed state mysteriously on other factors such as President Bush, who has done nothing for or against Ecuador except to ignore Ecuador, even as U.S. paid actors stand against U.S. interests and enshrine their well paid politics of hatred. One would think that anti-U.S. Ecuadoreans would appreciate the tens of millions of U.S. dollars to build their flawed albeit foolish schemata but the contrary is true today simply because the gradients in a dependencia system escalate passive-aggressive mores in to an entire geo-political outlook that never blames the in-state actors and always blames the out of state actors. And there is no way out of this self imprisonment of foolishness except to….grow up and act responsibly. But Ecuador just elected a prime specimen of an adolescent, selfish Princeling who stamps his feet to demand obedience and closes off any tools of responsible adult living. Most Ecuadoreans today seem to think that this is simply a follow up to their own internal refusal to support complex, adult living. Unfortunately, their surrender is close-perilously close- to a national suicide led by the false lure of comfort even as the nation plunges in to real time serfdom as enjoyed by the hapless Cubans, Iranians and the majority of Bolivians and Venezuelans today. There is no sustainable growth for these tragic peoples.

Ecuadoreans today have naively set themselves up on a collision course with honest adult realities. Ecuador is running away from self determination and adult leadership in its rush to shutter its own democracy plus surrender all its adult obligations to independent living which can only be assured through legitimate democracies and never secured under totalitarian regimes. But rather than grapple with the avalanche of Chavez’s take over of Ecuador, it appears today that Ecuadoreans themselves are rushing to surrender their individual rights…the keys to their own self determination and future….to the false fatherhood of the communist state. We are surrounded by neighborhood talk in Ecuador that troubling times are ahead under Correa but still none take personal responsibility for routing the upcoming disaster. No demands are made for transparency and legitimate government in the rush to surrender self responsibility to the total power state of Correa and Chavez. Societally, the subtext reminds one and all that to do nothing and say nothing as crime and poverty soar out of control is still the best course of living. Our friends become slaves to their own cycle of selfishness. It is far too easy to blame the enormous propaganda and illegal bribe monies underway in Ecuador from Hugo Chavez to explain this phenomenon. It is standard in Ecuador today to blame the mythical George Bush for “ruining” Ecuador under some baloney that somehow “Bush lied” about Iraq…as if this is cause enough for Ecuadoreans to cancel all adult rational thought and childishly submit to communism. But the hard truth is that Ecuadoreans themselves are to blame. While we agree that Chavez’s repulsive influences have triggered and will sustain the new axis of evil fully operating in Ecuador today, it is in fact Ecuadoreans who must grow up and suspend their current shameful national psychoses of hiding from themselves their own realities which are based solely on their own individual acts of laziness, lawlessness, poor education and indifferences so depraved that none today defend democracy’s bright beacon in any meaningful sense.

There will be no affection whatsoever for these doomed, intellectually useless, vacuous  Ecuadorean sycophants of self delusion in the years ahead as they finally wake up with a very bad hang over from their current boozey, self absorbed state of denial in what always occurs: a collision course with reality. No longer welcome at any but the lowest rungs of the modern world….the Axis of Evil thugs, Ecuadoreans must really ask themselves what kind of a table they have set for themselves. Indeed, they are lying down with dogs of deception and are now covered with the fleas of dishonesty.

Ecuadoreans have just allied with Evo Morales, Iran, Hugo Chavez, Fidel Castro and Daniel Ortega. All of these men lead failed states where honesty and integrity are only to be found in the private sector….and then in soft whispers for fear that the state might hear them and kill them. Surrendering honesty and integrity, as is the case in Cuba, Iran, Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua is a disgusting situation and never bodes well for nation building.

To the uninformed or self-serving, the allure of the deceptive forms a strong attraction. Reprisals – or perceived reprisals- come in many shapes to the uneducated who refuse or fail to formulate ethics-guided standards and norms. Besides, in Ecuador all one need do to feel good about oneself is nothing because the national past time is to lazily blame everyone else for their sorry state while they, themselves need perform no corrective or adult duties. This embarrassing cycle of self delusion has set Ecuador up on a collision course with any moral tenants of the free world and establishes Ecuador- en masse- as a soon to be Leader of the Dead Beat nations and activist for the irresponsible and dishonest Axis of Evil- true evil- which knows only dishonor and dishonesty upon which it feeds. .

-Pedro Camargo for ECrisis

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Ecuador: A Midair Collision and Correa's Balancing Act
January 25, 2007 22 33  GMT  STRATFOR

Summary

Ecuadorian Defense Minister Guadalupe Larriva died Jan. 24 when the military helicopter she was riding had a midair collision with another military helicopter. The government called for a thorough investigation of the incident, and Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa has requested international assistance from France and Chile to legitimize the probe. The incident highlights Correa's shaky control of a country that has ejected three presidents in seven years.

Analysis

After only nine days in office, Ecuadorian Defense Minister Guadalupe Larriva died Jan. 24 when the military helicopter she was riding in collided with another military helicopter in midflight. Larriva's 17-year-old daughter and five military personnel also were killed.

Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa called for assistance from friendly countries in investigating the crash. Although the collision appears to have been accidental, Correa's need to call in international support emphasizes the delicate balance Correa must maintain between the powerful and potentially hostile legislature and the military.

Larriva, a former member of parliament and head of the Ecuadorian Socialist Party-Broad Front, was a popular Cabinet selection. She was Ecuador's first female defense minister, and was one of very few civilian leaders of its military. Correa hoped to use Larriva's appointment to strengthen presidential control over the military. To sweeten the deal, she had promised to raise salaries and increase transparency in the armed forces' promotional system.

Though nothing outwardly signals that the military would want Larriva dead, her position as Correa's tool for controlling a particularly coup-happy military establishment could have made her a prime target. Her death thus could have been meant as a warning to Correa.

Interior Minister Gustavo Larrea has said that two helicopters flying together, much less at night, is unusual. Larrea added that the government suspects one of the pilots made a bad maneuver, or that one of the helicopters suffered a mechanical malfunction, causing the collision

Though the incident is being called an accident within Ecuador, Correa's decision to ask foreigners to participate in the investigation testifies to his shaky position in Ecuador's sharply divided domestic political climate. Between 1996 and 2000, Ecuador had two military coups and four presidents, and since January 2000, Ecuador has seen four presidents and one brief military tribunal. Although Ecuadorian presidential terms last four years, Correa's three predecessors served only two years each, as public demonstrations pushed the legislature to revoke each president's mandate. Though the military has made few active moves to oust presidents or to threaten the democratic nature of the government in the past seven years, it has declined to suppress unrest, leading to the escalation of chaos and eventual calls for elections.

Correa has carefully chosen the countries asked to help investigate the incident. The helicopters were French-made, so Correa has requested that France send two technical specialists to survey the crash. Correa also requested a crash investigatory team from the Chilean air force. In selecting France and Chile, he has avoided the obvious choice of Ecuador's main ally in the region, Venezuela. One of the main critiques of Correa in the run-up to his election regarded questions about his ability to remain independent from Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, something that remains a sensitive issue in Ecuador. Chavez, who has a propensity toward drama, has pursued a marked increase of his military's capacity and budget, both of which make involving Venezuela in this situation problematic for Correa.

The results of the investigation will heavily influence Correa's choice for Larriva's replacement. He likely will replace her with another civilian who is on board with his agenda. If the collision turns out to have resulted from foul play on the part of the military, however, Correa will be faced with a choice. He will either have to bargain, which will mean replacing Larriva with the military's first choice, or he will need to purge the military. And a purge might provoke a very strong military response.