March 14, 2008  The Editors of Ecrisis again commend the Wall Street Journal for printing this analysis on Zimbabwe, a sister state to Cuba, Venezuela and Ecuador. While it is embarrassing to consider how quickly these two Latin states have plunged, it is notable to contrast their cartel like behaviors to that of Africa's cartel leaders, notably Mugabe, who has only ever claimed to "help the poor" while his dictatorial Marxist cabal, called his corrupt politburo, has amassed offshore billions as his own nation starves.
 
Of course both Venezuela and Ecuador have engaged, like Zimbabwe, with fake election ploys in varying degrees ranging from job loss threats to bizarre and non transparent voting ballots using pre rigged voting grids to insure outcome of electoral slates. Neither Venezuela nor Ecuador are democracies today nor have their recent elections been free, open or transparent. It is just that so few speak of this. No sane soul can say that either Venezuela or Ecuador's democracy is not edging toward being on par with the rabid Mugabe, a dictator that both Castro and Chavez openly admire. We are not clear yet if Correa and his deeply uneducated brain dead cabal even knows where Rhodesia used to sit, but we are encouraged that his Minister of Foreign Affairs will be making criminal deals with Mugabe as they have with Iran soon.
 
Like Ecuador, whose quality of life and inflation indicators would parrot Zimbabwe's were it not for the use of the U.S. dollar and whose unemployment and hard poverty ratings come close to this failed status were it not for the U.S. taxpayer give away called free trade under the overly extended ATPDEA which Ecuador does no longer deserve, Venezuela is inching toward the same non-state status as its ally Zimbabwe. In Africa, many urged....silence about these problems, calling it pride that the oligarchs have been removed. Pride that the government ended open, free speech in most ways and bought off open media. Pride that lawlessness has run amuck and pride that human lives have become so meaningless in their prideful termination of rule of law, democracy, and property rights. Pride that death claims far too many innocent victims of disease and murder. Pride that Zimbabwe is a sewer of corruption today. So too is Ecuador and Venezuela.
 
As for Zimbabwe, we remind that for too long one and all were urged, Hands Off! Silence! Marxism at Work to Help the Poor! and Eventually Mugabe will magically go away and mysteriously all crime will end. This is called criminal enabling. It is a well known tactic of the old communist-Marxist infilltrators and it is specious and dirty. It never works and must not be confused with the more well known tactic of shunning criminals. Shunning, also called embargoes, is a tool for honest descriptive diplomacy and must be coupled with a plan to restore the end of the shunning once the criminality ends and law and order is restored, which is of course not the case in the FARC loving zones of Cuba, Zimbabwe, Ecuador, Venezuela, North Korea and Iran. Normally, prison sentences follow when shunning fails.
 
Latins have a choice: they can look like Mugabe's Zimbabwe or they can start to look like a more vibrant Switzerland. A better role model would be Estonia or Ireland, long repressed for eons but today enjoying remarkably positive freedoms and quality of life. We say this: stop pretending that you can be envious of freedom loving, integrated living and start bringing these goals forward. In Ecuador, this may require serious psychiatric counseling now because too much has been left to harden and control the entire nation state. But there is always hope and there is help- professional help.
 
Venezuelans do not want to be deemed state sponsors of terror. Neither do Ecuadoreans. Neither do Cubans.
But...they are and no amount of silence can hide this fact. Maybe these peoples will magically end their leaders' iron fist by remaining silent and wishing for some magical restoration of law and order. The Chavista propagandists lull the weary world in to this myth making that mysteriously all will be well soon. This is also called fraud and lying to responsible governments. Worse- it is called lying to one's self.
 
Try telling Zimbaweans that they need to wait for some magical moment when they can expect to live past the age of 35 when death and despair is all around them.
Instead of waiting for fraud, disease and murder to take you, we advise an end to this passive aggressive manipulative life plan and start acting responsibly.
 
The Asamblistas in Montecristi, with their composite IQ of 14, will not save you from your cloning of Zimbabwe's fatal governance plan.
Only the truth- the active truth- will set you free. To do this, you must pledge your mutual honor and live for tomorrow- not surrendering.
 
 
-Pedro Camargo for Ecrisis
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The Wall Street Journal

March 14, 2008
 
   OPINION 
Peace Won't Come to Zimbabwe

By MARIAN L. TUPY and DAVID COLTART
March 14, 2008

Zimbabwe's presidential and parliamentary elections on March 29 are rigged in favor of the incumbent leader Robert Mugabe and his Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front. Much ink has been spilled on the electoral prospects of his two opponents -- Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, and former Finance Minister Simba Makoni. But neither have a realistic chance of winning, for Mr. Mugabe knows that the most likely alternative to the State House in Harare is a prison cell at The Hague.

The case against Mr. Mugabe and the ZANU-PF for crimes against humanity would be compelling. They have turned one of Africa's most prosperous and relatively free nations into an Orwellian nightmare. Since 1994, the average life expectancy in Zimbabwe has fallen to 34 from 57 for women and to 37 from 54 for men. Some 3,500 Zimbabweans die every week from the combined effects of HIV/AIDS, poverty and malnutrition. Inflation and unemployment are at 150,000% (no misprint here) and 80%, respectively. The country has no freedom of speech or assembly, and the government has used violence to intimidate and murder its opponents. In the meantime, Zimbabwe's delusional leader rails against non-existent Western plots supposedly concocted by George W. Bush and Tony Blair.

By right, Mr. Mugabe and the ZANU-PF should have been voted out of office long time ago. But one of Mr. Mugabe's first steps after gaining power was to root out all threats to his rule. In August 1980, newly elected Prime Minister Mugabe asked Kim Il Sung, the North Korean dictator, for help in setting up a special army unit devoted to quelling Zimbabwe's internal dissent. Paradoxically, the potential dissenters Mr. Mugabe wanted destroyed were not the tiny minority of white Rhodesians, but his comrades in the fight for a majority rule -- the Zimbabwe African People's Union.

A self-declared Marxist with his sights set on the creation of a one-party state, Mr. Mugabe knew that ZAPU and its charismatic leader Joshua Nkomo could become his only serious opposition in the long run. In 1983, therefore, Mr. Mugabe sent his North Korean-trained death squad into Nkomo's stronghold in the Matabeleland, where they killed some 20,000 civilians. This massacre eviscerated ZAPU's strength and sent Nkomo into exile. In 1987, he agreed to merge his party with ZANU in exchange for the largely meaningless title of Zimbabwe's vice president.
Mr. Mugabe's strategy worked. With minimum opposition, he maintained his hold on power until the birth of the Movement for Democratic Change in 2000 following Zimbabwe's disastrous intervention in the Congolese civil war and the ruling party's gross economic mismanagement. Since then, the strength of the opposition had forced Mr. Mugabe to adopt an array of ever-more repressive and economically destructive measures.

Mr. Mugabe's desperation is understandable. The moment he loses power, he could quickly find himself in the dock. The new government would, no doubt, come under tremendous pressure to ensure that Mr. Mugabe stands trial for his crimes. An exile to a friendly country, like Angola or Malaysia, had been rumored, but is unlikely. Charles Taylor was lured out of the Liberian presidency in 2003 with a promise of a comfortable life in Nigeria. Three years later, he was flown to The Hague where he has been fighting for his freedom ever since.
The candidacies of Messrs. Tsvangirai and Makoni might be hopeless, but they are not meaningless. A fraudulent election will further undermine Mr. Mugabe's legitimacy. It will energize the opposition's local structures and allow it some representation in Zimbabwe's parliament.

Importantly, it will open the possibility of another five-year term for Zimbabwe's octogenarian leader and further economic decline. That prospect may force the more enlightened parliamentarians from the ZANU-PF, many of whom are quietly hoping for Mr. Makoni's victory, to jump ship and join the opposition.

In the event of popular protests, the attitude of the army and the police will be crucial. Mr. Mugabe has spared no expense to buy the loyalties of the officer class, but the rank-and-file is poor, hungry and disillusioned.

Considering that Mr. Mugabe cannot afford to give up power, he will try to hang on. He may then find himself in charge of a paper tiger and unable to stop a surge of public resentment against his rule. If that takes place, let us hope it will be fast and bloodless.

Mr. Tupy is a policy analyst at the Cato Institute's Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity. Mr. Coltart, a member of the Zimbabwean parliament, belongs to the Movement for Democratic Change.